How many total cases of dengue fever will the World Health Organization report in Brazil in the first half of 2025?

Started Mar 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

In 2024, a record number of cases of dengue fever were reported across the globe, with a heavy concentration in Brazil (Guardian, MSN [Washington Post], World Health Organization). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined once data through June 2025 are first available (WHO - Global Dengue Surveillance, click "Country and region data" at the top of the page, change "Country" to "Brazil," confirm that "Year of data" is set to "2025," and click "Apply filters." In the first half of 2024, a total of 9,400,831 cases were reported, up from 2,502,144 over the same period in 2023.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 1.5 million 14.10% 0% +1.00%
At least 1.5 million, but fewer than 2.5 million 11.40% 0% +2.20%
At least 2.5 million, but fewer than 3.5 million 13.90% 0% +3.10%
At least 3.5 million, but fewer than 4.5 million 9.10% 0% +0.70%
At least 4.5 million, but fewer than 5.5 million 28.10% 0% -3.50%
At least 5.5 million, but fewer than 6.5 million 14.50% 0% -2.20%
At least 6.5 million, but fewer than 7.5 million 2.80% 0% -0.70%
At least 7.5 million, but fewer than 8.5 million 2.20% 0% -0.40%
At least 8.5 million, but fewer than 9.5 million 1.80% 0% -0.20%
At least 9.5 million, but fewer than 10.5 million 1.10% 0% 0%
10.5 million or more 1.00% 0% 0%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username