How many House of Commons seats will the Conservative Party win in the 2025 Canadian general election?
Closed Apr 28, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, through Governor General Mary Simon, called new parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 April 2025 (BBC, CNN). If there is any ambiguity as to the outcome, the question will close using officially announced results of the election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. If the election is postponed, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly.
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The question closed "Between 138 and 154" with a closing date of 28 April 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 104 | 4% | |
| Between 104 and 120 | 31% | |
| Between 121 and 137 | 53% | |
| Between 138 and 154 | 9% | |
| Between 155 and 171 | 2% | |
| Between 172 and 188 | 1% | |
| 189 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 34 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 124 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 116 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 285 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
