Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?

Despite fierce resistance, Islamic State militants have reportedly been losing ground and equipment in Mosul since Iraqi government forces and US-led air forces launched a major campaign to recapture the city in October 2016 (Iraqi News, The Guardian, Asia Times, Politico).

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If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether anyone other than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will be proclaimed caliph before 1 October 2017 or on whether the US will endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al Assad to remain in power

Name Probability
Before 1 April 2017 0%
Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive 2%
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive 98%
Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 January 2018. 0%

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