Started Oct 18, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Before 1 July 2017, will the US endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power?

The United States' current Syria policy calls for the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power (The Guardian, US Department of State, The White House, US Government Information), a position which puts them at odds with Russia (BBC, CNN) and which has been questioned by a US presidential candidate (International Business Times, CNN). The endorsement of an agreement which only allows Assad to remain in power during a transition period will NOT suffice (e.g. US Department of State), but an agreement which allows Assad to compete in national elections would. Recommended Questions How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017? To date, there is no evidence the US has endorsed a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 492
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1900
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.058
2.
-0.058
3.
-0.058
4.
-0.058
5.
-0.058

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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