How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?

Started Sep 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC • Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed as "less than 5 million" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (The UN Refugee Agency). _{See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.}

According to the 2015 Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, by August of 2016 the number of registered Syrian refugees had reached over 4.8 million. Outcome will be determined by the total number of Registered Syrian Refugees indicated on the UNHCR page for the region Recommended Questions When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo? When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 million		95%
Between 5 million and 5.4 million, inclusive		5%
More than 5.4 million		0%

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	189
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts	574
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

-0.164

-0.158

-0.146

-0.145

-0.139