How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?
Started
Sep 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
This question was closed as "less than 5 million" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (The UN Refugee Agency).
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According to the 2015 Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, by August of 2016 the number of registered Syrian refugees had reached over 4.8 million. Outcome will be determined by the total number of Registered Syrian Refugees indicated on the UNHCR page for the region Recommended Questions When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo? When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
According to the 2015 Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, by August of 2016 the number of registered Syrian refugees had reached over 4.8 million. Outcome will be determined by the total number of Registered Syrian Refugees indicated on the UNHCR page for the region Recommended Questions When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo? When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 5 million | 95% | |
| Between 5 million and 5.4 million, inclusive | 5% | |
| More than 5.4 million | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 189 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 574 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
