Started Sep 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?

This question was closed as "less than 5 million" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (The UN Refugee Agency). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


According to the 2015 Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, by August of 2016 the number of registered Syrian refugees had reached over 4.8 million. Outcome will be determined by the total number of Registered Syrian Refugees indicated on the UNHCR page for the region Recommended Questions When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo? When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 million 95%
Between 5 million and 5.4 million, inclusive 5%
More than 5.4 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 189
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 574
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.164
2.
-0.158
3.
-0.146
4.
-0.145
5.
-0.139

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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