How well will Johannes Kaiser perform in Chile's 2025 presidential election?

Started Mar 28, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 16, 2025 09:00PM UTC

Libertarian legislator Johannes Kaiser has seen growing support in the polls for Chile's 2025 presidential election (Yahoo [Bloomberg], Americas Quarterly). Chile is scheduled to hold a presidential election on 16 November 2025, with a second round between the first and second place winners to be held four weeks later if no candidate wins a majority of votes in the first round (Constitution of Chile, see Article 92). If Kaiser publicly announces that he will not seek the presidency, is barred from running, or otherwise cannot participate in the election, the question will close "Kaiser will place third or lower in the first round."

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The question closed "Kaiser will place third or lower in the first round" with a closing date of 16 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Kaiser will place third or lower in the first round 83%
Kaiser will advance to the second round and lose 9%
Kaiser will advance to the second round and win 4%
Kaiser will win the presidency outright in the first round 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.425147
2.
-0.362611
3.
-0.242595
4.
-0.16599
5.
-0.107903

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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