Started Feb 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Before 1 January 2018, will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country?

A lethal confrontation, in this case, is one that results in at least three fatalities. Civilian fatalities will count so long as the military, law enforcement, or militia of China and another country are involved in the confrontation. China has been using People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN), militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Sea ( CNBC, The Guardian, Center for Strategic and International Studies). In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (Washington Post). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (US News, ABC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether China will next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission or on whether negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement will be completed before 1 October 2017 or on when a lethal confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea or the United States will result in a fatality for either side?
There was no lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

289

Forecast
Count

1255

Crowd Brier Score

0.0043


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.006
3.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006