Before 1 January 2018, will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country?

Started Feb 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

A lethal confrontation, in this case, is one that results in at least three fatalities. Civilian fatalities will count so long as the military, law enforcement, or militia of China and another country are involved in the confrontation. China has been using People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN), militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Sea ( CNBC, The Guardian, Center for Strategic and International Studies). In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (Washington Post). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (US News, ABC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
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There was no lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 289
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1255
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
3.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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