Started Sep 21, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 30, 2015 02:05PM UTC

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

Russia has undertaken a military buildup in Syria in recent weeks, leading some to worry that Russia will intervene directly in the conflict (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-exclusive-idUSKCN0R91H720150909 , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/john-kerry-russia-syria.html , http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-syria-russia-assad-obama-2015-9 , http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-russia-syria-20150905-story.html ).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 95.00%
No 5.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 294
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 415
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.006
3.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username