Before 1 January 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Karen Read regarding her murder trials?

Started Apr 07, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closed Apr 28, 2025 01:30PM UTC
Challenges

Karen Read, whose first murder trial was covered by the Netflix documentary "A Body in the Snow: The Trial of Karen Read," has appealed to the US Supreme Court, claiming that retrial on charges that the jury in the first trial had purportedly acquitted her on is barred by the Double Jeopardy Clause of the US Constitution (WFIN, CBS News, Supreme Court - Read v. Norfolk County Petition, Cornell - Petition for Certiorari). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case, and the question will close upon the issuance of an order denying Read's petition. An order granting certiorari, vacating a lower court's decision, and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2). If Read withdraws her petition for certiorari, the question will close "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11%
No 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 123
Number of Forecasts 27
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 284
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.009276
3.
-0.005771
4.
-0.005224
5.
-0.004514

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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