Autocorrelation asks:

What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index value for the Atlantic basin in 2025, according to Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science?

Started Apr 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The ACE index is a measure of tropical cyclone activity (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Severe Weather Europe). Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted that the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2025 to 30 November 2025, "will have above-normal activity," with ACE forecasted at 155 (CBS News, CSU - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data provided by CSU through and including 30 November 2025 (CSU - North Atlantic Ocean Statistics, set "TC METRIC" to "Accumulated Cyclone Energy", CSU - Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Activity). As of the launch of this question, CSU reported the ACE index value for 2024 as 161.6.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 120.0, but less than 140.0" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 100.0 0%
At least 100.0, but less than 120.0 0%
At least 120.0, but less than 140.0 100%
At least 140.0, but less than 160.0 0%
At least 160.0, but less than 180.0 0%
At least 180.0, but less than 200.0 0%
At least 200.0, but less than 220.0 0%
220.0 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 217
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.073353
2.
-0.057232
3.
-0.053556
4.
-0.047434
5.
-0.037851

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username