Autocorrelation asks:
What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index value for the Atlantic basin in 2025, according to Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science?
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The ACE index is a measure of tropical cyclone activity (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Severe Weather Europe). Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted that the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2025 to 30 November 2025, "will have above-normal activity," with ACE forecasted at 155 (CBS News, CSU - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data provided by CSU through and including 30 November 2025 (CSU - North Atlantic Ocean Statistics, set "TC METRIC" to "Accumulated Cyclone Energy", CSU - Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Activity). As of the launch of this question, CSU reported the ACE index value for 2024 as 161.6.
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The question closed "At least 120.0, but less than 140.0" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 100.0 | 0% | |
| At least 100.0, but less than 120.0 | 0% | |
| At least 120.0, but less than 140.0 | 100% | |
| At least 140.0, but less than 160.0 | 0% | |
| At least 160.0, but less than 180.0 | 0% | |
| At least 180.0, but less than 200.0 | 0% | |
| At least 200.0, but less than 220.0 | 0% | |
| 220.0 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 26 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 217 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |