In what place will Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) rank among German political parties as of 17 October 2025, according to Europe Elects?

Started Apr 18, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 17, 2025 07:01AM UTC

AfD polled higher than the CDU/CSU party bloc for the first time in an Ipsos poll in early April 2025 (Yahoo [Reuters], Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 16 October 2025 and the outcome determined using chart data as reported by Europe Elects (Europe Elects - Germany, see "Polling Average of Germany"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data through and including 17 October 2025 are first reported. The percentage numbers displayed when you hover your cursor over the chart will control, irrespective of the apparent line sequence on the chart. Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial. If AfD merges with another party, the polling for the merged party will count. In the event of a tie, the party that most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to be ranked higher. If the data for 17 October 2025 are not displayed on the chart specifically for 17 October 2025, the data for the nearest subsequent date will be used for resolution.

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The question closed "First" with a closing date of 17 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
First 89%
Second 8%
Third 2%
Fourth or lower 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 311
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.28967
2.
-0.22536
3.
-0.168862
4.
-0.153489
5.
-0.118704

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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