How many seats will the Democratic Alliance (Aliança Democrática, or AD) win in the next Portuguese parliamentary election?
Started
Apr 18, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed May 18, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Closed May 18, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
After the government lost a vote of confidence in March 2025, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved parliament and announced snap elections to be held on 18 May 2025 (AP, Deutsche Welle, AD Website). In 2024 elections, AD won 80 seats in parliament (AP).
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The question closed "Between 80 and 91" with a closing date of 18 May 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 68 | 3% | |
| Between 68 and 79 | 23% | |
| Between 80 and 91 | 58% | |
| Between 92 and 103 | 14% | |
| 104 or more | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 11 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 27 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |
