probahilliby asks:
Who will the College of Cardinals elect as the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church?
Closed May 08, 2025 04:10PM UTC
The Vatican announced on 21 April 2025 that Pope Francis had died, which will leave the College of Cardinals responsible for electing a new pope (Vatican News, AP, NPR). The College must cast ballots until a single candidate received a two-thirds majority vote (ABC News). If the College has not elected a new pope before 1 July 2025, the closing date will be extended.
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The question closed "Someone else" with a closing date of 8 May 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Jean-Marc Aveline | 2% | |
| Raymond Burke | 0% | |
| Timothy Dolan | 0% | |
| Willem Jacobus Eijk | 1% | |
| Peter Erdő | 6% | |
| Mario Grech | 1% | |
| Pietro Parolin | 20% | |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 13% | |
| Malcolm Ranjith | 1% | |
| Robert Sarah | 2% | |
| Angelo Scola | 1% | |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 19% | |
| Joseph Tobin | 0% | |
| Jose Tolentino | 1% | |
| Peter Turkson | 5% | |
| Matteo Zuppi | 6% | |
| Someone else | 22% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 88 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 161 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 155 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
