Zan-Ozimek asks:
How many ballots will the College of Cardinals take to elect the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church?
Closed May 08, 2025 04:10PM UTC
The Vatican announced on 21 April 2025 that Pope Francis had died, which will leave the College of Cardinals responsible for electing a new pope (Vatican News, AP, NPR). The College must cast ballots until a single candidate received a two-thirds majority vote, but the threshold may be changed if the conclave fails to elect a pope after a period of time (ABC News, Archdiocese of Boston). If the College has not elected a new pope before 1 July 2025, the closing date will be extended. In 2013, the election of Pope Francis occurred on the fifth ballot (CBS8). The question will close upon a ninth ballot being taken without a pope being elected.
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The question closed "4 or 5" with a closing date of 8 May 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 3 or fewer | 5% | |
| 4 or 5 | 47% | |
| 6 or 7 | 27% | |
| 8 or 9 | 14% | |
| The College will not elect the next pope in fewer than 10 ballots | 7% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 29 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 88 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 68 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 155 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
