How will the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate perform in the 2025 South Korean presidential election?
Closed Jun 03, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Lee Jae-myung, the former leader of the DPK, was nominated as his party's candidate to run in the 2025 South Korean presidential election scheduled for 3 June 2025, which was called after the impeachment and removal of former President Yoon Suk Yeol in April 2025 (ABC News, AP). However, Lee Jae-myung's eligibility may be in question after a decision by the country's Supreme Court (CNBC). South Korea uses a simple plurality system, meaning that the candidate who wins the most votes is elected, irrespective of winning a majority (South Korea National Election Commission).
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The question closed "The candidate will win with at least 40% but less than 50% of the vote" with a closing date of 3 June 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The candidate will not win the election | 1% | |
| The candidate will win with less than 40% of the vote | 5% | |
| The candidate will win with at least 40% but less than 50% of the vote | 69% | |
| The candidate will win with at least 50% but less than 60% of the vote | 25% | |
| The candidate will win with 60% or more of the vote | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 14 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 121 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 34 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 280 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
