Will Irfaan Ali win reelection in Guyana's 2025 general election?

Started May 02, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Guyanese President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) is seeking reelection in 2025 amid explosive economic growth and threats from neighboring Venezuela (iNews Guyana, AP, Indo Caribbean Diaspora News). When the election date is set, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly. If the election is postponed to a new date in 2025, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly. The question will close early if the government of Guyana officially announces that presidential and/or the National Assembly elections will not take place in 2025.

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The question closed "Yes, and the PPP/C will win a majority of seats in the National Assembly" with a closing date of 1 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the PPP/C will win a majority of seats in the National Assembly 89%
Yes, but the PPP/C will not win a majority of seats in the National Assembly 5%
No, but the PPP/C will win a majority of seats in the National Assembly 3%
No, and the PPP/C will not win a majority of seats in the National Assembly 3%
Elections for president and the National Assembly will not occur in 2025 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000841
2.
-0.000474
3.
-0.000465
5.
-0.000291

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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