In its first Demographic Outlook released in FY2026, what will the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate US net immigration to be in calendar year 2025?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
In its 2025 Demographic Outlook (released in January 2025), the CBO estimated that net immigration, or the number of people who entered the US minus the number who left, totaled 2,707,946 in calendar year 2024 (CBO - Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055, click "Data Underlying Figures" to download an xlsx file, and navigate to the "Figure 7" sheet [figures are rounded, but the file contains more exact data]). In the same outlook, the CBO estimated that net immigration for 2025 would total 2,010,350, which was down from the 2,601,232 it had estimated for 2025 in its 2024 Demographic Outlook (CBO - Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054, click "Data Underlying Figures" to download an xlsx file, and navigate to the "Figure 6" sheet, CBO - Demographic Projections). Please note that the 2025 Demographic Outlook explicitly states that "the population projections reflect laws and policies that were in place as of November 15, 2024," and "unless indicated otherwise, the years referred to in this report are calendar years" (CBO - Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 (PDF)). FY2026 will run from 1 October 2025 through 30 September 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 0 | 9.40% | -1.04% | +0.40% | +4.73% |
| At least 0, but fewer than 500,000 | 12.20% | -1.36% | +1.20% | +0.87% |
| At least 500,000, but fewer than 1.0 million | 38.30% | +6.86% | +6.30% | +5.30% |
| At least 1.0 million, but fewer than 1.5 million | 19.20% | -2.13% | -4.80% | -12.63% |
| At least 1.5 million, but fewer than 2.0 million | 10.50% | -1.17% | -1.50% | -4.67% |
| 2.0 million or more | 10.40% | -1.16% | -1.60% | +6.40% |