Will rapper and producer Sean "Diddy" Combs be either 1) convicted of Racketeering Conspiracy in or 2) plead guilty to any charges related to his 2025 federal criminal trial?

Started May 09, 2025 01:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2025 02:20PM UTC
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Jury selection for Combs' criminal trial began on 5 May 2025, at which he is facing five charges, including a charge of Racketeering Conspiracy (NBC News, NY Post, USA Today). Combs rejected a plea deal offered by prosecutors in a hearing on 1 May 2025, though details of that deal were not released (CBS News). Any plea deal will count so long as it includes a guilty plea to Racketeering Conspiracy or a guilty plea to another charge or charges that results in the dismissal of the Racketeering Conspiracy charge. If the trial ends with a hung jury as to the count of Racketeering Conspiracy or the judge dismisses that charge for a reason other than a plea agreement between Combs and prosecutors, the question will close "No." For the purposes of this question, a nolo contendere (aka no contest) plea will be considered a guilty plea (Cornell - Nolo Contendere).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 2 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, Combs will be convicted of Racketeering Conspiracy 57%
Yes, Combs will plead guilty plea to a pertinent charge 11%
No 33%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.392559
2.
-0.844289
3.
-0.696052
4.
-0.624826
5.
-0.342189

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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