Will the UN officially declare that a famine exists in any part of the Gaza Strip before 15 November 2025?

Started May 09, 2025 01:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 22, 2025 10:00PM UTC

Resources in Gaza have become scarce as Israel has blocked aide from entering the area as its battling with Hamas continues (AP, NBC News). For general information on how famines are declared, see: BBC, NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration will not count (e.g., CBS News).

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NOTE 25 August 2025: We are aware of the IPC report released on 22 August 2025. As noted by the BBC, the IPC itself cannot officially declare a famine, and the resolution criteria state that "the reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration will not count." We will continue to monitor the situation and developments.


After making contact with the Office of the Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, we have concluded that the IPC report and subsequent statements from the Secretary General and other UN bodies on 22 August 2025 were an official declaration. Therefore, the question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 22 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78%
No 22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.74743
2.
-0.74743
4.
-0.727386
5.
-0.691542

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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