Sadr, who has had a prominent role in Iraqi politics since the US occupation of the country, has publicly stated that he will not participate in the 2025 electoral process, saying of his supporters in late March 2025, "I [also] forbid them all from voting and running for office, as it constitutes assistance in sin" due to corruption (Iraqi News Agency, War on the Rocks, The National). Political leaders in Iraq have called on Sadr to reverse course (Iraqi News Agency, Kurdistan 24). Whether Sadr later recants a call for his supporters to vote is immaterial. The question will close early if the Iraqi parliamentary elections are officially postponed to a date after 31 December 2025. However, if the elections are delayed but still in 2025, the question will remain open, but the "before 11 November 2025" end date for Sadr publicly calling on his followers will not be changed.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 November 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.