Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will the World Health Organization (WHO) or US CDC report a human case of H5N1 avian influenza infection outside of Asia where sustained human-to-human transmission is the suspected cause?

Started May 19, 2025 03:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

H5N1 avian influenza has been circulating among various bird and mammal species, and human and other mammalian cases are being reported in the US (ABC News, Pan American Health Organization). Human cases are rare and are generally suspected to have originated from contact with infected animals, but the prospect of human-to-human transmission has health officials concerned (WHO, CDC, CDC 12 February 2024). WHO defines "sustained human-to-human transmission" as "transmitting easily from one person to the next and then further onward" (STAT News). For the purposes of this question, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are considered to be in Europe (Britannica - Continent). Turkey west of the Bosphorus Strait and north of the Dardanelles Strait is considered to be in Europe, with the rest of the country being in Asia.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000332
2.
-0.000332
4.
-0.000332
5.
-0.000322

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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