Before 1 January 2026, will Toyota announce a specific production vehicle model that will feature a hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2ICE) for public sale in any part of at least one major global market?

Started May 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Toyota has been developing an H2ICE engine that produces energy by burning fuel, as opposed to using hydrogen to run fuel cells (Top Speed, El Adelantado). A "specific production vehicle model" means a named vehicle intended for mass production and sale to the general public, not a concept car or a vehicle solely for testing or racing purposes. "Major global markets" are defined as Japan, North America (i.e., the US and Canada), and Europe (i.e., the EU and UK). The outcome will be determined by official press releases, announcements on Toyota's official websites for these regions, and confirmed reports from reputable automotive news outlets indicating a specific model and its intended market availability. The particular model year must be included in the announcement to count.

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4319. This question will be scored.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12%
No 88%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 462
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042537
2.
-0.038232
3.
-0.033927
4.
-0.026233
5.
-0.025356

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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