Vehicle Innovation Challenge: 2025 & 2027

The auto industry is continuing its dramatic transformation, from total reliance on internal combustion engines to growing acceptance of electric vehicles to the continuing rise of autonomous vehicles and the rising ubiquity of ride-hailing options. In collaboration with the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation (PVMI) at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management, we are pleased to present this two-part Vehicle Innovation Challenge!

There will be a total of eight pairs of questions related to various aspects of commercial and technological advancement: one asking about outcomes at the end of 2025, and the other asking the same question about outcomes at the end of 2027. They will all be launched by mid-May. All questions will suspend at the end of 2025, and only the eight questions about 2025 outcomes will be scored. Researchers at Wharton and the University of Indiana Kelley School of Business will use your forecasts as part of their ongoing research. For more information about their research, see this PDF file (Download).

The forecaster who i) performs the best on all 8 short-term questions, and ii) forecasts on all 16 questions with substantive comments specific to each question (150 character minimum) will be declared the winner, and win a copy of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction signed by author Dr. Phil Tetlock.

Additionally, all participants who forecast on all 16 questions will be invited to join an online presentation in 2026 where researchers share their findings.