How many new electric vehicles (EVs) will be sold in the US in 2025, according to Kelley Blue Book?

Started May 13, 2025 01:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

EV sales in the US grew again in 2024, but higher financing costs and tax subsidy skepticism in the new Trump administration may blunt further expansion (Clean Technica, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Kelley Blue Book (KBB), a subsidiary of Cox Automotive, expected in January 2026. On 13 January 2025, KBB reported that 1,301,411 EVs were sold in the US in 2024 (KBB - Q4 2024 Electric Vehicle Sales Report).

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4293. This question will be scored.

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The question closed "At least 1,250,000, but fewer than 1,375,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1,000,000 0%
At least 1,000,000, but fewer than 1,125,000 0%
At least 1,125,000, but fewer than 1,250,000 6%
At least 1,250,000, but fewer than 1,375,000 76%
At least 1,375,000, but fewer than 1,500,000 9%
At least 1,500,000, but fewer than 1,625,000 1%
At least 1,625,000, but fewer than 1,750,000 4%
1,750,000 million or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 462
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.102785
2.
-0.07924
3.
-0.070969
4.
-0.068059
5.
-0.067019

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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