In how many countries, excluding China, will Baidu's Apollo Go operate a commercial ride-hailing or taxi service open to the public that uses fully autonomous vehicles as of 31 December 2027?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Chinese company Baidu's robotaxi service, Apollo Go, is expanding internationally (CNBC, Technology Magazine). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2027 and the outcome determined using data published by Baidu and open-source reporting. The commercial service must not involve backup drivers to count, and service must involve payment to count (any subsidies are immaterial). Apollo Go making its operation available through a third party (e.g., Uber) or a subsidiary in a country will count. For the purposes of this question, Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be part of China. If Apollo Go is acquired by or merged with another entity, the number of countries, excluding China, in which the resulting entity operates, subject to all elements of the question, will be used for resolution.
This question is the longer-term companion question of #4316. While your forecasts and comments will be reviewed in the future, they will not be scored.
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NOTE 26 May 2025: A person must be physically in the vehicle and there to take over from the autonomous system to count as a "backup driver."
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or fewer | 31.10% | 0% | 0% | +3.20% |
| Between 3 and 5 | 42.40% | 0% | 0% | +1.40% |
| Between 6 and 8 | 21.20% | 0% | 0% | +10.50% |
| Between 9 and 12 | 3.80% | 0% | 0% | -2.70% |
| Between 13 and 17 | 1.20% | 0% | 0% | -7.50% |
| Between 18 and 23 | 0.20% | 0% | 0% | -4.10% |
| 24 or more | 0.10% | 0% | 0% | -0.80% |