Before 1 January 2026, how many original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will have announced a specific production passenger vehicle model that utilizes solid-state battery technology for its primary propulsion battery pack for public sale in any part of at least one major global market?

Started May 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Researchers and manufacturers have been seeking to exploit the potential of "solid-state batteries" for many years (Car and Driver, Electrek, Investopedia - OEM). For the purposes of this question, a "specific production passenger vehicle model" is one primarily designed to carry passengers, intended for mass production and sale to the general public (not a concept car or a vehicle solely for testing or racing purposes) with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 6,000 pounds or less (Weigh Safe). "Major global markets" are defined as Japan, North America (i.e., the US and Canada), and Europe (i.e., the EU and UK). Different brands within the same ownership group (e.g., Hyundai and Kia, Volkswagen and Audi) will only count as one. Hybrids and PHEVs will with solid-state batteries not count. The outcome will be determined by official press releases, announcements on manufacturer websites for these regions, and confirmed reports from reputable automotive news outlets indicating a specific model and its intended market availability. The particular model year must be included in the announcement to count.

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4321. This question will be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Zero 64.10% +1.00% +1.00% -0.70%
1 28.50% -0.30% -0.30% +2.50%
2 6.80% -0.60% -0.60% -1.00%
3 or more 0.60% -0.10% -0.10% -0.80%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username