In April 2025, Tesla announced that it had been testing a Full Self-Driving (FSD) ride-hailing service with its employees in Austin, TX, and San Francisco, CA, and the company is planning to launch a ride-hailing service in Austin in the summer of 2025 without stating whether it will charge passengers in the beginning (Tech Crunch). The tested service is "supervised," meaning that the vehicles have a safety driver in the vehicle (NY Post). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2025 and the outcome determined using information as reported by Tesla. Whether the commercial service utilizes a safety driver is immaterial, and the service must involve payment to count. Separate, noncontiguous zones in the same metropolitan area will not count as two or more. In the event of ambiguity as to where Tesla is operating, metropolitan areas are as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), some of which overlap (e.g., San Francisco and Oakland). If a location is considered to be in two or more overlapping metropolitan areas, the area with the higher or highest civilian labor force as of December 2025 will be used (BLS). For example, if Tesla first operated in San Francisco and then expanded into only Oakland, CA, it would be considered part of the "San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,CA" metropolitan area-and would count as one-instead of being part of a separate "Oakland-Fremont-Berkeley, CA" metropolitan area since the former has a higher civilian labor force. Tesla making its operation available through a third party (e.g., Uber) in a metropolitan area will count.

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4295. This question will be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.