Before 1 January 2026, how many original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will have announced a specific production passenger vehicle model that utilizes solid-state battery technology for its primary propulsion battery pack for public sale in any part of at least one major global market?

Started May 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Researchers and manufacturers have been seeking to exploit the potential of "solid-state batteries" for many years (Car and Driver, Electrek, Investopedia - OEM). For the purposes of this question, a "specific production passenger vehicle model" is one primarily designed to carry passengers, intended for mass production and sale to the general public (not a concept car or a vehicle solely for testing or racing purposes) with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 6,000 pounds or less (Weigh Safe). "Major global markets" are defined as Japan, North America (i.e., the US and Canada), and Europe (i.e., the EU and UK). Different brands within the same ownership group (e.g., Hyundai and Kia, Volkswagen and Audi) will only count as one. Hybrids and PHEVs will with solid-state batteries not count. The outcome will be determined by official press releases, announcements on manufacturer websites for these regions, and confirmed reports from reputable automotive news outlets indicating a specific model and its intended market availability. The particular model year must be included in the announcement to count.

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4321. This question will be scored.

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The question closed "Zero" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Zero 94%
1 6%
2 1%
3 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 462
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.074788
2.
-0.074788
3.
-0.067477
4.
-0.059731
5.
-0.042435

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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