Roche asks:

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to MedHELM's medical domain LLM leaderboard?

Started Jun 04, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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MedHELM is "a comprehensive healthcare benchmark to evaluate language models on real-world clinical tasks" created by a collaboration between, among others, Stanford's Center for Research on Foundational Models (CRFM) (Stanford - MedHELM). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2025 and the outcome determined using the ranks as reported by MedHELM at approximately 5:00p.m. ET on 30 September 2025 (Stanford - MedHELM Leaderboard, see "Mean win rate" on the "Accuracy" sheet tabbed near the top of the page; this page will be used for resolution). As of 2 June 2025, DeepSeek was ranked first with its "R1" scoring 0.663, followed by OpenAI with its "o3-mini (2025-01-31)" scoring 0.641. In the event of a tie for first place by LLMs of different organizations, the LLM with the higher "Mean win rate" on the "Efficiency" sheet tabbed near the top of the page will be considered first. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, further instructions will be provided.

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The question closed "DeepSeek" with a closing date of 30 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Anthropic (e.g., "Claude") 2%
DeepSeek 87%
Google (e.g., "Gemini") 3%
OpenAI (e.g., "03-mini," "GPT") 6%
Another organization 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 345
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.429066
2.
-0.401397
3.
-0.332324
4.
-0.308156
5.
-0.286414

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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