Roche asks:
Before 1 October 2025, which of the top four pharmaceutical companies by 2024 research and development budgets will first announce the acquisition of an AI-centered drug development startup with a value of $500 million or more?
Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Pharmaceutical companies invest tens of billions of dollars annually into research and development (Fierce Biotech, Drug Discovery & Development). A firm will be considered an "AI-centered drug development startup" if it A) characterizes itself as a firm that primarily uses AI technologies in order to identify novel drug candidates, and B) was founded in the year 2019 or later. Whether the announced acquisition is completed is irrelevant, and the announcement of a joint venture will not count. In the event that two or more companies simultaneously (i.e., exact same date and time) announce a qualifying acquisition, the more highly ranked company in terms of 2024 research budget will be considered to have announced first.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AstraZeneca | 12.04% | +0.91% | -4.87% | +0.12% |
| Johnson & Johnson | 13.92% | +1.44% | +2.06% | +0.59% |
| Merck | 10.63% | -0.46% | -0.92% | -4.20% |
| Roche | 16.71% | +3.10% | +4.26% | -2.29% |
| None of the above | 46.71% | -4.99% | -0.52% | +5.79% |