Roche asks:

Before 1 October 2025, which of the top four pharmaceutical companies by 2024 research and development budgets will first announce the acquisition of an AI-centered drug development startup with a value of $500 million or more?

Started Jun 04, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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Pharmaceutical companies invest tens of billions of dollars annually into research and development (Fierce Biotech, Drug Discovery & Development). A firm will be considered an "AI-centered drug development startup" if it A) characterizes itself as a firm that primarily uses AI technologies in order to identify novel drug candidates, and B) was founded in the year 2019 or later. Whether the announced acquisition is completed is irrelevant, and the announcement of a joint venture will not count. In the event that two or more companies simultaneously (i.e., exact same date and time) announce a qualifying acquisition, the more highly ranked company in terms of 2024 research budget will be considered to have announced first.

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The question closed "None of the above" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
AstraZeneca 2%
Johnson & Johnson 2%
Merck 2%
Roche 4%
None of the above 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 105
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 274
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.269709
2.
-0.265684
3.
-0.230396
4.
-0.226469
5.
-0.214559

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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