Roche asks:

Between 2 June 2025 and 1 October 2025, which of the following major medical diagnostics companies will first announce regulatory approval from any national (e.g., US FDA) or supranational (e.g., EU's EMA) public regulatory body for a novel, AI-driven diagnostic tool intended for clinical decision-making in oncology for human patients?

Started Jun 04, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

AI has the potential to revolutionize the diagnosis of cancer (Cancer Research Institute, National Institutes of Health). An announced approval of a tool produced in collaboration with another organization will count. The announcement must explicitly characterize the tool as being an AI or machine learning tool. Oncology is the branch of medicine specializing in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer (Cancer.gov - Oncology). Any type of approval that allows the company's tool to be utilized on actual patients outside of a clinical trial will count, including fast-track and emergency authorizations. In the event that two or more companies simultaneously (i.e., exact same date and time) announce a qualifying approval, the answer option listed first (top to bottom) will be considered to have announced first. An already-approved tool of a firm acquired by a major medical diagnostics company will not count.

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NOTE 13 August 2025: If a major medical diagnostics company announced regulatory approval from any national or supranational public regulatory body for a novel, AI-driven diagnostic tool prior to 2 June 2025, any announcement of a subsequent approval of the same tool by another public regulatory body will not count.


The question closed "None of the above" with a closing date of 2 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
GE Healthcare 2%
Philips Healthcare 4%
Roche 2%
Siemens Healthineers 4%
None of the above 88%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 240
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.069906
2.
-0.064669
3.
-0.064597
4.
-0.063308
5.
-0.060255

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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