Roche asks:

As of 30 September 2025, how many novel drug candidates will Insilico Medicine have announced as having entered a US FDA-registered Phase III clinical trial and identified using their AI-driven platforms?

Started Jun 04, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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Insilico Medicine is a clinical-stage, AI-driven drug discovery company. Their pipeline includes several drug candidates targeting conditions such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and cancer (Insilico - Pipeline). In July 2023, Insilico announced the initiation of Phase II clinical trials for its lead candidate, Rentosertib (fka ISM001-055), developed using their AI platforms, including Pharma.AI, PandaOmics, and Chemistry42 (Drug Target Review, Cancer.org - Clinical Trials). Please note that this candidate is shown twice, as there are concurrent studies taking place in different parts of the world. Because it is the same molecule/compound being used to treat the same condition, it is only counted once. This question asks participants to forecast how many drug candidates Insilico Medicine will announce as having entered Phase III trials, identified through their AI platforms, as of approximately 5:00p.m. EDT on September 30, 2025. A "novel drug candidate" is defined as a distinct molecule or compound identified using Insilico's AI platforms. The announcement must explicitly state the use of Insilico's AI platforms in the identification process. Acceptable sources include official press releases, the company's website, and credible open-source reporting.

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The question closed "Zero" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Zero 95%
One 4%
Two 1%
Three or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 101
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 233
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.045503
2.
-0.044458
3.
-0.04353
4.
-0.04353
5.
-0.0434

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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