How will the Democratic Party candidate perform in the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?
Started
Jun 13, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
New Jersey primary voters went to the polls on 10 June 2025, with Democrats nominating US Representative Mikie Sherill and Republicans nominating former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli (NBC News, AP).
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The question closed "The Democratic candidate will win with 54% or more of the vote" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The Democratic candidate will not win the election | 10% | |
| The Democratic candidate will win with less than 50% of the vote | 17% | |
| The Democratic candidate will win with at least 50% but less than 54% of the vote | 63% | |
| The Democratic candidate will win with 54% or more of the vote | 10% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 40 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 144 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
