Between 20 June 2025 and 20 October 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in Libya due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Oct 21, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Libya has seen an increase in violence as political adversaries struggle to exercise control in the country (Arab Weekly, France 24, Crisis24). The question will be suspended on 20 October 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select nothing (5) select only "Libya," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 72 total fatalities in Libya between 20 June 2024 and 20 October 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 28 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 50 | 6.00% | +2.00% | +2.00% |
| At least 50, but fewer than 100 | 41.50% | -5.00% | -5.00% |
| At least 100, but fewer than 200 | 27.50% | +0.50% | +0.50% |
| At least 200, but fewer than 300 | 7.70% | +1.40% | +1.40% |
| At least 300, but fewer than 400 | 6.50% | +0.50% | +0.50% |
| At least 400, but fewer than 500 | 5.80% | +0.30% | +0.30% |
| At least 500, but fewer than 700 | 3.40% | +0.10% | +0.10% |
| At least 700, but fewer than 1,000 | 0.80% | +0.10% | +0.10% |
| 1,000 or more | 0.80% | +0.10% | +0.10% |