Will the US publicly accuse Iran of committing an act of cyberwar against critical infrastructure of the US before 1 January 2026?

Started Jun 27, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, "an act of cyberwar" is a cyber act (i.e., an unauthorized, malicious, and destructive act completed against a computer system through the use of a computer system) that compromises and disrupts a critical infrastructure system with substantial destructive effects (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). For the purposes of the accuser, "US" means the executive branch of the federal government. "Critical infrastructure" is as defined in the United States Code at 18 USC 2339D(c)(3) (Cornell). Critical infrastructure does not necessarily have to be within the territory of the US to count, and both the act and accusation must occur during the question's open period to count. An accusation must be against either the government of Iran or a person or entity the US asserts is either sponsored or directed by the government of Iran. Accusations of superficially disruptive attacks (e.g., DDoS attacks on public websites, manipulating water systems without causing deaths and substantial injury) will not count (e.g., NYU, CNN). Ransomware attacks for the purposes of larceny and/or extortion alone will not count (e.g., Insurica).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11%
No 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.087936
2.
-0.086839
3.
-0.083147
4.
-0.082182
5.
-0.077668

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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