Started Mar 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?

During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (Newsweek). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election, has intensified the issue of Northern Ireland's governance status (Irish News, Financial Times). The 1998 Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the right to hold a referendum, or "border poll" on unification with Ireland, and some have floated the idea of an independence referendum (BBC).

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Name Probability
Yes 1%

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