For how long will Sean "Diddy" Combs be sentenced to serve in prison for his July 2025 federal criminal convictions?

Started Jul 14, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closed Oct 03, 2025 08:45PM UTC
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On 2 July 2025, rapper and producer Sean "Diddy" Combs was convicted on two federal prostitution charges and acquitted on three other, more serious charges (BBC, CBS News). Combs' sentencing was scheduled for 3 October 2025 as of the launch of this question (ABC News). Whether Combs is credited for time served, sentenced to supervision following release, or appeals either his conviction or sentence is immaterial. The question will close early if the court postpones sentencing until after 31 March 2026. Concurrent sentences will not be counted twice, but consecutive sentences will (Cornell - Consecutive Sentence).

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The question closed "At least 42 months, but fewer than 60 months" with a closing date of 3 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 24 months 46%
At least 24 months, but fewer than 42 months 22%
At least 42 months, but fewer than 60 months 14%
At least 60 months, but fewer than 78 months 3%
At least 78 months, but fewer than 96 months 2%
96 months or more 13%
No sentencing will occur before 1 April 2026 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 15
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 40
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.495435
2.
-0.443607
3.
-0.156832
4.
-0.146926
5.
-0.109365

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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