Will former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro be found guilty of "Violent abolition of the democratic rule of law" and/or "Coup d'état" in his trial before Brazil's Supreme Court?
Closed Sep 11, 2025 09:39PM UTC
Bolsonaro has been on trial for various criminal offenses related to an alleged coup plot after Bolsonaro was defeated by now-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PBS, Brazilian Supreme Court [in Portuguese]). The trial is expected to conclude by the end of 2025, but the end date will be extended, if necessary (NY1). Any appeals to the full Brazilian Supreme Court ("Supremo Tribunal Federal" in Portuguese) are immaterial. If the case against Bolsonaro is dismissed or otherwise concludes without a decision, the question will close "No." The most serious charges against Bolsonaro are "Violent abolition of the democratic rule of law" [Abolição violenta do Estado Democrático de Direito] and "Coup d'état" [Golpe de Estado] (Brazil Penal Code [in Portuguese], See Articles 359-L and 359-M under "CRIMES AGAINST DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS" [DOS CRIMES CONTRA AS INSTITUIÇÕES DEMOCRÁTICAS]).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 September 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | |
| No | 11% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 18 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 35 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |