Will former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro be found guilty of "Violent abolition of the democratic rule of law" and/or "Coup d'état" in his trial before Brazil's Supreme Court?

Started Jul 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 11, 2025 09:39PM UTC
Challenges

Bolsonaro has been on trial for various criminal offenses related to an alleged coup plot after Bolsonaro was defeated by now-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PBS, Brazilian Supreme Court [in Portuguese]). The trial is expected to conclude by the end of 2025, but the end date will be extended, if necessary (NY1). Any appeals to the full Brazilian Supreme Court ("Supremo Tribunal Federal" in Portuguese) are immaterial. If the case against Bolsonaro is dismissed or otherwise concludes without a decision, the question will close "No." The most serious charges against Bolsonaro are "Violent abolition of the democratic rule of law" [Abolição violenta do Estado Democrático de Direito] and "Coup d'état" [Golpe de Estado] (Brazil Penal Code [in Portuguese], See Articles 359-L and 359-M under "CRIMES AGAINST DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS" [DOS CRIMES CONTRA AS INSTITUIÇÕES DEMOCRÁTICAS]).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 89%
No 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 35
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.035727
2.
-0.032409
3.
-0.030955
4.
-0.02492
5.
-0.024318

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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