What percentage of the vote will New York City (NYC) Republican mayoral nominee Curtis Sliwa win in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Started
Jul 25, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
As of late July 2025, Sliwa is facing a general election for NYC mayor with two prominent Democrats running as independents and Democratic Party nominee Zohran Mamdani (NY Post). The general election for NYC mayor is scheduled for 4 November 2025 (NYC Campaign Finance Board).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Less than 10.0%" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 10.0% | 4% | |
| At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0% | 78% | |
| At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0% | 11% | |
| At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0% | 6% | |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 50.0% | 2% | |
| 50.0% or more | 0% | |
| Sliwa will cease to be a candidate for NYC mayor before 4 November 2025 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 22 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 63 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
