As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?

Started Sep 21, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2015 11:00PM UTC

Europe is facing a refugee crisis (http://www.unhcr.org/55eed5d66.html , http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-how-europes-alarming-lack-of-unity-over-the-issue-could-bring-about-the-break-up-of-the-eu-10492151.html , http://neurope.eu/article/a-call-for-collective-courage/ ). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean as of 31 December 2015 (http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html ).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 560,000 0%
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive 0%
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million 23%
1 million or more 77%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 358
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2241
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.533
2.
-0.524
3.
-0.484
4.
-0.454
5.
-0.443

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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