Before 1 July 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Ghislaine Maxwell regarding her conviction on sex trafficking charges?
Closed Oct 06, 2025 01:30PM UTC
Maxwell was convicted on sex trafficking charges in 2021 as a conspirator with Jeffrey Epstein (Department of Justice). She has appealed her conviction, arguing that the Second Circuit errored in disregarding a 2007 non-prosecution agreement between a Florida US attorney and Jeffrey Epstein (SCOTUSblog, Newsweek, Second Circuit Decision 17 September 2024). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case, and the question will close upon the issuance of an order denying certiorari (Cornell - Certiorari). An order vacating the Second Circuit's decision and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | |
| No | 58% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 34 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 62 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |