Before 1 July 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Ghislaine Maxwell regarding her conviction on sex trafficking charges?

Started Aug 01, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 06, 2025 01:30PM UTC
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Maxwell was convicted on sex trafficking charges in 2021 as a conspirator with Jeffrey Epstein (Department of Justice). She has appealed her conviction, arguing that the Second Circuit errored in disregarding a 2007 non-prosecution agreement between a Florida US attorney and Jeffrey Epstein (SCOTUSblog, Newsweek, Second Circuit Decision 17 September 2024). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case, and the question will close upon the issuance of an order denying certiorari (Cornell - Certiorari). An order vacating the Second Circuit's decision and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 42%
No 58%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 62
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.263362
3.
-0.263362
4.
-0.263165
5.
-0.253059

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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