Will Australia and/or New Zealand announce an intention to recognize a Palestinian state before 1 January 2026?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
On 24 July 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will recognize Palestine as a state, making it the first G7 nation to do so and with Canada following suit on 30 July 2025 (AP, BBC, Prime Minister of Canada, Justia - Formation and Recognition of States Under International Law). As of the launch of this question, neither Australia nor New Zealand recognized Palestine as a state. An announcement explicitly stating that the country will recognize a Palestinian state will count, but aspirational (e.g., "someday," "positive consideration") or conditional announcements (e.g., AP) will not count.
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The question closed "Yes, only Australia" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, only Australia | 82% | |
| Yes, only New Zealand | 0% | |
| Yes, both Australia and New Zealand | 13% | |
| No | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 121 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 462 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
