Will the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) hold elections for its Palestinian National Council (PNC) in 2025?

Started Aug 01, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

On 19 July 2025, Palestinian Authority President and PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree calling for new elections for the PNC, a legislative body of the PLO, by the end of 2025 (Yaffa News Network, JNS, Palestine News & Info Agency [in Arabic]). Officials indicated that Palestinian communities abroad would see elections held at Palestinian embassies (Yahoo [Jerusalem Post]). The exact form the elections take is immaterial, though votes must be cast by Palestinians in the West Bank and in at least two continents other than Asia to count. The seven continents are Africa, Antarctica, Asia, Australia/Oceania, Europe, North America, and South America. For the purposes of this question, "Australia/Oceania" includes Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Pacific Island nations east of Papua New Guinea's border with Indonesia, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Russia are considered to be in Europe (Britannica - Continent). Turkey west of the Bosphorus Strait and north of the Dardanelles Strait is considered to be in Europe, with the rest of the country being in Asia. The question will close early if the PLO officially announces that PNC elections will not take place in 2025.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.028203
3.
-0.026769
4.
-0.026572
5.
-0.022483

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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