Which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns in the 2025 regular season?

Started Aug 01, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 04, 2026 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using "NFL Player Passing Stats 2025" data as reported by ESPN (ESPN, set to "2025 Regular Season). In the event of a tie, the quarterback who threw for the most yards per game will be considered to have thrown for the most touchdowns, followed by completion percentage (CMP%). The team for which each named quarterback was due to start as of the launch of this question is in parentheses, but the team for whom any quarterback is playing is immaterial to the resolution.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Another quarterback" with a closing date of 4 January 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) 0%
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) 0%
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders) 0%
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) 0%
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) 0%
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) 0%
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 0%
Bo Nix (Denver Broncos) 0%
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) 8%
Another quarterback 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 217
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.533145
2.
-0.212571
3.
-0.159601
4.
-0.10601

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username