Will the absolute value (i.e., value regardless of the figure being positive or negative) of revisions for June and July 2025 exceed 100,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in its August 2025 employment situation report?
Closed Sep 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After the BLS reported major revisions to its payroll data for May and June in its July 2025 employment situation report, the government agency's data has faced heavy scrutiny (BLS - Employment Situation July 2025, CNBC, Politico). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2025 and the outcome determined using revision data as reported in the BLS' employment situation report for August 2025, expected on 5 September 2025 (BLS - Employment Situation, BLS - Release Schedule). The absolute value of each month's revisions will be summed up to determine the outcome. In its February 2025 report, BLS reported a "change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000," which represents total revisions for the two months with an absolute value of 34,000 [=16,000 + 18,000] (BLS - Employment Situation February 2025.pdf, see under "Establishment Survey Data").
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | |
| No | 67% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 13 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 17 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |