Before 15 August 2026, will a United States Supreme Court Justice announce his or her retirement?

Started Aug 15, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2026 07:01AM UTC

With Donald Trump back in the White House and the Senate under GOP control, speculation abounds that he could name a fourth Justice to the US Supreme Court (Yale University Press, Newsweek, Time). An announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor will count, irrespective of the date it is to take effect (e.g., Supreme Court - O'Connor Letter, Supreme Court - Breyer Letter). The death or removal of a Justice alone will not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 21.00% -0.44% +1.12% -11.87%
No 79.00% +0.44% -1.13% +11.87%

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