Will Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 chart for 12 or more consecutive weeks, starting with its first week on the chart?

Started Aug 22, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2025 01:00AM UTC
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Taylor Swift announced on the Kelce brothers' New Heights podcast that her next album, "The Life of a Showgirl," will be released on 3 October 2025 (Newsweek, Billboard - The Chart Week). Swift's 2024 album, "The Tortured Poets Department," debuted and remained at #1 for 12 consecutive weeks (Business Insider). The question will be suspended on 29 December 2025 if still open, the day before the chart for the 12th week is expected to be released (Billboard 200).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 18%
No 82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 131
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.387994
2.
-0.306038
3.
-0.304877
4.
-0.257546
5.
-0.241503

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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