The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen between 21 November 2025 and 30 November 2025?
Closed Nov 30, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The US Thanksgiving holiday falls on 27 November, and 21-30 November includes the weekend before and the weekend after in 2025, a time period where weather can heavily impact air travel (NPR). The question will be suspended on 29 November 2025 and the outcome determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Over the same period in 2024 (the Friday before Thanksgiving through the Sunday after Thanksgiving, 22 November to 1 December), the TSA screened 25,664,878 travelers, up from 24,863,094 in 2023 (17-26 November).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 25.6 million, but fewer than 26.2 million" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 23.8 million | 1% | |
| At least 23.8 million, but fewer than 24.4 million | 6% | |
| At least 24.4 million, but fewer than 25.0 million | 17% | |
| At least 25.0 million, but fewer than 25.6 million | 36% | |
| At least 25.6 million, but fewer than 26.2 million | 32% | |
| At least 26.2 million, but fewer than 26.8 million | 5% | |
| At least 26.8 million, but fewer than 27.4 million | 2% | |
| At least 27.4 million, but fewer than 28.0 million | 0% | |
| 28.0 million or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 163 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
