The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
What percentage of the vote will the Republican Party candidate receive in the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?
Started
Sep 16, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
New Jersey primary voters went to the polls on 10 June 2025, with Democrats nominating US Representative Mikie Sherill and Republicans nominating former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli (AP, Newsweek).
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The question closed "At least 40.0%, but less than 45.0%" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 30.0% | 1% | |
| At least 30.0%, but less than 35.0% | 2% | |
| At least 35.0%, but less than 40.0% | 8% | |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 45.0% | 35% | |
| At least 45.0%, but less than 50.0% | 45% | |
| At least 50.0%, but less than 55.0% | 8% | |
| 55.0% or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 146 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 404 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
