What percentage of the vote will the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CDPM) candidate receive in the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election?
Closed Oct 12, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Paul Biya, the 92-year-old CDPM member and incumbent who has been president of Cameroon since 1982, is running for reelection in the country's 2025 presidential election amid a fragmented opposition (BBC, AL24 News, Business Insider). As of the launch of this question, the next Cameroonian presidential election was scheduled for 12 October 2025 (US Embassy in Cameroon). The question will close early if the presidential election is canceled or postponed to a date after 3 November 2025. The name of the person printed on the ballot who ultimately wins will be considered the winner of the election, even if that named candidate is replaced (e.g., Mel Carnahan's "victory" in the 2000 Missouri Senate race [CNN]).
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The question closed "At least 50.0%, but less than 65.0%" with a closing date of 12 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 50.0%, and the CDPM candidate will lose | 4% | |
| Less than 50.0%, but the CDPM candidate will win | 10% | |
| At least 50.0%, but less than 65.0% | 25% | |
| At least 65.0%, but less than 80.0% | 50% | |
| 80.0% or more | 7% | |
| No presidential election will be held before 3 November 2025 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 117 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 391 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
